+- Forums (https://forums.ragol.co.uk)
+-- Forum: Archives (https://forums.ragol.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=8)
+--- Forum: Archived Forums (https://forums.ragol.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=67)
+---- Forum: Phantasy Star Online (https://forums.ragol.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=68)
+----- Forum: Episode III (https://forums.ragol.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=12)
+------ Forum: Card Findings (https://forums.ragol.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=33)
+------ Thread: Dear Omar, The probability of getting an S rank card (/showthread.php?tid=2793)
Dear Omar, The probability of getting an S rank card - mastersword - 01-08-2004
As told by Omar i have calculated the probability of obtaining an S Rank card at level one.
I have based this calculation on the probability of getting a N3 card to change into R3 with between 1 and 10 of that card, which then in turn becomes an S rank card again using the probability for a flucation having between 1 and 10 of this card already. i have ignored the chance of getting the R3 card again because i dont know the probability of getting the card without a fluctuation which would not be possible as you get new cards from fluctations.
All probabilitys are expressed as a factor of 1, with 1 being certain and 0 being actually impossible.
N3-->R3 x R3-->S
0.0106 x 0.55 x 0.1 x 0.0106 x 0.55 x 0.02=
=0.000 000 006 797 778.
Despite managing this maths i cant convert it into a fraction XD
Dear Omar, The probability of getting an S rank card - Serpent7 - 04-08-2004
It's a shame no one has already recognised this, but well done.
I'm not sure, but that would probably give you a fraction of around 1 over 1471069
] ]1 [ [
--------
1471069
P.S. the ['s are there because the forum won't let me put multiple whitespace :'(
Dear Omar, The probability of getting an S rank card - Omar - 04-08-2004
mastersword Wrote:Everything is possible but this is like a 1 in a billion thing.After redoing your sum, I have found you to be a bit out.
I get the answer 0.000 000 067 977 78 (your answer times 10).
When it is converted into a fraction it becomes: 1/14 710 689 which is roughly 1/10million (a lot smaller than 1/billion as you suggested).
Thanks for taking the time to prove yourself wrong. If you wanna discuss this more then I suggest pming me as you really shouldn't make topics directed at a certain member.
*senses a lock...*
Dear Omar, The probability of getting an S rank card - Ivan - 04-08-2004
Mastersword. You have proven yourself wrong already. I've locked the previous thread for a reason...making another one only shows you wish to have a go with me. And as far as I'm concerned, you're only disobeying the forum rules:
Sol(Forum Rules) Wrote:3 - Moderators Decision
As far as you are concerned the moderators are god, their decisions are final. They are here for your benefit, so please don't have a go at them.
Making more duplicate threads will only result in them being locked, and bringing you closer to a ban.
*Locked*