Chance of Big Pal Rappy spawning

[Mirinee]

oh so out of 10240 el rappies 1 of which would be a probable big pal rappy,
and/or 1 out of 20 pal rappies would be a probable big pal rappy(or is it 1/20 of it being a big race rappy)? Either way it does not change the math on it just whether it would be a big el or big pal.

It is 1/20 chance of being a big race Rappy, hence

1/20 x 1/512 = 1/10240

is correct.

I surprised you didn't come across at least 1 when hunting Milla. 3 out of 5 of the Pal Rappies I've ever seen were fat ones.

A PSO player is expected to see 1 Large Pal Rappy in every 20 Pal Rappies they encounter. Now, to calculate the chance of encountering 3 Large Pal Rappies out of 5 Pal Rappies using mathematics:

Let the number of Large Pal Rappies be the random variable X, which follows a Binomial Distribution with n = 5 (pink saw 5 Pal Rappies) and p = 1/20 = 0.05 (chance of it being large).

We are interested in P(X=3) (pink saw 3 large ones)

P(X=3) = 5C3 * 0.05^3 * 0.95^2 = 1.12E-3 = around 1/886

So, if 886 people saw 5 Pal Rappies, only one can be expected to see 3 that are large, and that person was pink for those 886 people. You're the one who should be surprised .