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PSO lvl 200
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04-07-2005, 05:48 PM
so if you think every run is seperate, why doespiping normally work out at about 1/512 like its meant to? statistically, i should get a rare enemy ever 73 pipes or so if piping 7, and more often than not i do.... explain that with seperatism!
 jarl Wrote:so if you think every run is seperate, why doespiping normally work out at about 1/512 like its meant to? statistically, i should get a rare enemy ever 73 pipes or so if piping 7, and more often than not i do.... explain that with seperatism! I dont think... i am telling you! Every run you do is separate from the other! Searching for a weapon loads of times in forest doesnt mean that next time you go into forest there is more chance of you finding that weapon! The drop rate still applies, it doesnt just fall on your 10th forest run. That is why some people can find rare weapons on their first forest run, whilst others may take many more runs before they find the weapon. lol, oh dear... your one of those people who thinks a weapon should drop at the exact drop rate? Thats an AVERAGE..... dont tell me I have to explain to you how averages work.... So what if you get a weapon at roughly the drop rate? Thats roughly what you should experience.... But if you think that happens all the time, my god you still have a lot to learn. You are one individual... so on your experiences I should generalise that to everyone elses? So what if you get your weapon at the drop rate? Big deal... other people will get that special weapon on the first pipe! Others will get the special weapon on their 1,000 pipe! You really dont understand how probability works!!! Explain how I am purplenum and I have seen 7 hildetorrs in total and not one has yet dropped me a frozen shooter? 1/2 drop rate???
i honestly dont know, maybe the game doesnt like you becase you carry around hacked stuff? i never said anything about it should be EXACTLY, though im sure everyone does sometime, thoughit should average oput, as you said. i do not believe the game is seperate- i was piping for rappies yesterday, i didnt see one, but what did happen when i did a cave run, was that i saw a mil lilly. i think that that lily would have been a rare rappy had i been piping rappies, so the game isnt totally seperate! also, you may have seen 7 hildtorrs, did any of them kill you??? if they did, then thatll be why! ive seen 2 mil lillys more than ive killed, but just because i saw them doesnt mean they count!
also, i know that the game could be any time- ive never got a rare off any moth-type, though i shoulve got about 5 by now. luckily for me, they suck  also, first barble i killed with my FO got me a silence claw at a 1/250ish cance. the game isnt fair distribution, and the odd mishap will occur, but dont you think 5 mkbs in 3 days is pushing it?
04-07-2005, 06:08 PM
for it to count it must be slayed BY THY SWORD!!!!! preferably
 lol back on topic plz guys
jarl Wrote:i honestly dont know, maybe the game doesnt like you becase you carry around hacked stuff? i never said anything about it should be EXACTLY, though im sure everyone does sometime, thoughit should average oput, as you said. i do not believe the game is seperate- i was piping for rappies yesterday, i didnt see one, but what did happen when i did a cave run, was that i saw a mil lilly. i think that that lily would have been a rare rappy had i been piping rappies, so the game isnt totally seperate! also, you may have seen 7 hildtorrs, did any of them kill you??? if they did, then thatll be why! ive seen 2 mil lillys more than ive killed, but just because i saw them doesnt mean they count! No, ill tell you why! Its because the forest runs are independant! The fact that I have seen 7 hildetorrs doesnt make the drop rate for a frozen shooter fall to 1/1 does it? For goodness sake, THINK about it!!!!! Its logic, common sense! It is possible that I might never get a FS no matter how many hildetorrs I see, although its unlikely, its not impossible!!! Jeez.... No, no... im not saying the game is separate... I am TELLING YOU, the theory or probability... EVERY forest run is independant! Just because someone does 500 hundred forest ones, to someone who has just done 1 forest run..... the person who is doing forest run number 1 compared the person doing his 500th forest run... the drop rate is still the same! Sorry, but im gonna have to put this is caps, cos you just dont understand what I am saying: *YOU HAVE JUST AS MUCH CHANCE OF FINDING A RARE ON YOUR 1ST FOREST RUN AS YOU DO ON YOUR 500TH.... IM TELLING YOU THIS AS FACT!* Dont patronise me please.. im doing maths at uni... I am being kind by telling you how probability works so you are not misinformed. I am getting so tired having to tell you this over and over again... PLEASE be told! I am not saying this to argue back at you... I am only replying to tell you how probability works!!! As a maths student, its annoying for me, because im teaching you, and you are posting right back telling me im wrong! So please, understand that I am right! Why do you feel the urge to argue back? Ask every mathematician or individual with a ounce of sense, they will agree with me. Jarl, the 5 MKB's in a day is not 'pushing it' as you put it... its not about whether it 'seems' likely or not its about the probablilty. Although its unlikely, its possible!!! Thats what is so important! Those moths dont even drop a rare weapon, so thats why. They have no drop rate, so the probablilty of finding a rare weapon is zero! It am telling you fact. Period.
04-07-2005, 06:16 PM
your theory is only true if the game drops are independant! im saying that they may not be!!!
04-07-2005, 06:20 PM
ok stop fighting u2 u sound like 5 year olds.....
04-07-2005, 06:22 PM
sorry, my bad, i now accept everything he just said, the game IS independant and my theoruies come crashing down.. dammed pal rappy!!
04-07-2005, 06:23 PM
jarl Wrote:your theory is only true if the game drops are independant! im saying that they may not be!!! Jarl.. it has nothing to do with the game! Lets put it this way, a simple analogy... 1) Two guys.... both are searching for a dragon slayer in forest. 2) The first guy is on his 5th run through forest 3) The second guy is on his 1000th run throug the forest 4) When the fist guy goes on forest run number 6... he has exactly the same change of finding the dragon slayer as the second guy who will be on his 1001 forest run! The amount of times you do a forest run does not alter the drop rate! The guy doing his 1000th forest run who still hasnt found a dragon slayer is just unlucky! But, it is also probable that the first guy may find his dragon slayer on his 10th forest run and the other guy find his first dragon slayer on his 10,000 run! You see how it works?? It has nothing to do with the game, its about the drop rate and probability! In fact, EVERY game that has a drop rate, the same theory applies. The maths doesnt change just because its PSO! Do you get it now? |
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